calculations.matches_14_prob_goals_total

Poisson probabilities for the total goals in a match using λ = stats_goals_expected_total. Evaluated for k ∈ 0…7; the 7_plus bucket is computed as 1 − sum(prob_0…7).

P(X = k) = e^(-λ) · λ^k / k!

Lineage

flowchart LR
m9[/matches_9_expected_goals/] --> me[/calculations.matches_14_prob_goals_total/]
me --> mart[/mart.matches/]
click m9 "/calculations/matches_9_expected_goals/" "Open"
click mart "/mart/matches/" "Open"

Columns

Column	Description	Formula
event_id	Bet365 event identifier.	passthrough
event_date	Event date.	passthrough
event_partition_key	ClickHouse partition key.	passthrough
score_total	Actual total goals (carried).	passthrough
stats_goals_expected_total	Expected total goals.	passthrough
stats_goals_expected_home	Expected home goals.	passthrough
stats_goals_expected_away	Expected away goals.	passthrough
prob_goals_total_0	Probability total = 0.	round(max(if(goals = 0, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_1	Probability total = 1.	round(max(if(goals = 1, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_2	Probability total = 2.	round(max(if(goals = 2, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_3	Probability total = 3.	round(max(if(goals = 3, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_4	Probability total = 4.	round(max(if(goals = 4, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_5	Probability total = 5.	round(max(if(goals = 5, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_6	Probability total = 6.	round(max(if(goals = 6, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_7	Probability total = 7.	round(max(if(goals = 7, probability, 0)), 4)
prob_goals_total_7_plus	Probability total ≥ 8.	round(1 - sum(probability), 4)
prob_goals_total_sum	Sanity check — exactly 1.	round(sum(probability) + (1 - sum(probability)), 4)

probability = round(poisson_pmf(stats_goals_expected_total, goals), 4) from macros/poisson_pmf.sql.