calculations.matches_17_strat_predicted
Picks the predicted winner as the side with the highest positive EV (or 'none' if every EV is non-positive). Carries the matching odd, Kelly fraction, EV, implied probability and model probability for that one side.
Lineage
Section titled “Lineage”flowchart LR m16[/matches_16_strat_kelly_criterion/] --> me[/calculations.matches_17_strat_predicted/] m15[/matches_15_strat_expected_value/] --> me m12[/matches_12_prob_win/] --> me m1[/matches_1_odds_prematch/] --> me m5[/matches_5_score/] --> me me --> m18[/matches_18_strat_bet/] me --> mart[/mart.matches/] click m16 "/calculations/matches_16_strat_kelly_criterion/" "Open" click m15 "/calculations/matches_15_strat_expected_value/" "Open" click m12 "/calculations/matches_12_prob_win/" "Open" click m1 "/calculations/matches_1_odds_prematch/" "Open" click m5 "/calculations/matches_5_score/" "Open" click m18 "/calculations/matches_18_strat_bet/" "Open" click mart "/mart/matches/" "Open"
Throughout this model, “best EV” means
greatest(coalesce(ev.strat_expected_value_home, -999), coalesce(ev.strat_expected_value_draw, -999), coalesce(ev.strat_expected_value_away, -999)).
Columns
Section titled “Columns”| Column | Description | Formula |
|---|---|---|
event_id | Bet365 event identifier. | kc.event_id |
event_date | Event date. | kc.event_date |
event_partition_key | ClickHouse partition key. | kc.event_partition_key |
strat_predicted_winner | 'home' / 'draw' / 'away' / 'none'. | side whose EV equals the best EV when that EV > 0; otherwise 'none' |
strat_actual_winner | Actual winner side from the score. | s.score_winner |
strat_predicted_winner_odd | Bookmaker odd for the predicted side. | o.odds_prematch_last_<side> for the side selected above; NULL when strat_predicted_winner = 'none' |
strat_predicted_winner_kelly | Kelly fraction for the predicted side. | round(kc.strat_kelly_criterion_<side>, 4) |
strat_predicted_winner_ev | EV for the predicted side. | round(ev.strat_expected_value_<side>, 4) |
strat_predicted_winner_implied_prob | Bookmaker-implied probability 1 / odds. | round(1.0 / o.odds_prematch_last_<side>, 4) (NULL when no positive-EV side) |
strat_predicted_winner_prob | Model probability for the predicted side. | w.prob_<side> (prob_home_win / prob_draw / prob_away_win) |