calculations.matches_15_strat_expected_value

Computes the betting Expected Value for each outcome: EV = (model probability × bookmaker odd) − 1. Positive EV indicates a bet with positive theoretical edge.

Lineage

flowchart LR
m12[/matches_12_prob_win/] --> me[/calculations.matches_15_strat_expected_value/]
m1[/matches_1_odds_prematch/] --> me
me --> m16[/matches_16_strat_kelly_criterion/]
me --> m17[/matches_17_strat_predicted/]
me --> mart[/mart.matches/]
click m12 "/calculations/matches_12_prob_win/" "Open"
click m1 "/calculations/matches_1_odds_prematch/" "Open"
click m16 "/calculations/matches_16_strat_kelly_criterion/" "Open"
click m17 "/calculations/matches_17_strat_predicted/" "Open"
click mart "/mart/matches/" "Open"

Columns

Column	Description	Formula
event_id	Bet365 event identifier.	w.event_id
event_date	Event date.	w.event_date
event_partition_key	ClickHouse partition key.	w.event_partition_key
strat_expected_value_home	EV of a unit bet on home.	round(case when w.prob_home_win is null or o.odds_prematch_last_home is null or o.odds_prematch_last_home <= 1 then null else (w.prob_home_win * o.odds_prematch_last_home) - 1 end, 4)
strat_expected_value_draw	EV of a unit bet on draw.	round(case when w.prob_draw is null or o.odds_prematch_last_draw is null or o.odds_prematch_last_draw <= 1 then null else (w.prob_draw * o.odds_prematch_last_draw) - 1 end, 4)
strat_expected_value_away	EV of a unit bet on away.	round(case when w.prob_away_win is null or o.odds_prematch_last_away is null or o.odds_prematch_last_away <= 1 then null else (w.prob_away_win * o.odds_prematch_last_away) - 1 end, 4)